Can Schools Save Drop-Outs?

Some Discouraging Stats from Philly:

Likelihood of dropping out given certain life problems:

-Abused or neglected: 71.3%
-In Foster Care: 75.2%
-Juvenile Justice placement: 90.1%
-Gave birth during high school: 68.3%

-Number of high school age children with these problems in Philadelphia: 13,393

Source: Unfulfilled Promise: The Dimensions and Characteristics of Philadelphia's Dropout Crisis, 2000-2005

Some Encouraging Stats From Philly:

Effects of the "Check and Connect" identification and intervention program on a high-risk population in Philadelphia:
-No intervention (control group) Drop-out Rate (5 year): 94%
-Treatment Group Drop-out Rate (5 year): 42%
-Improvement due to program: Decrease 5 year drop-out rate by 1/2

-Effects of "Career Academies" alternative schools program on a high-risk population in Philadelphia:
-No intervention (control group) Drop-out Rate (4 year): 32%
-Treatment Group Drop-out Rate (4 year): 21%
-Improvement due to program: Decrease 4 year drop-out rate by 1/3

Source: "Keeping kids in school: Lessons from research about preventing dropouts" by Craig Jerald. Research summary available through the Center for Public Education. (White paper forthcoming).

Some food for thought From Philly:

-Cost per student of the "Check and Connect" program: $1600 per year
-Number of students in need of such programs in Philadelphia School District: ~85,000 to 90,000
-Cost for all Philadelphia's drop-outs of the "Check and Connect" program: ~$135 - $145 million
-Percent of students nationwide who fail to graduate: ~25% - 33%
-Number of students nationwide who fail to graduate: ~12 - 16 million
-Cost of check and connect nationwide: ~$19 - $25 billion
-Current federal Title I expenditures: 12.7 billion
-Increase necessary to save these students: Doubling federal expenditures

Take home message:

It can be done, but it's going to cost us.

More on this later.